Teacher's Ramblings

A potpourri of education, politics, family matters, and current events.

Monday, February 14, 2005

Will Iraq Bow To Iran?

The above analysis concludes that the top vote getters are tilted towards the religious beliefs of Iran and therefore the administration has bet on the wrong horse. I would offer a slightly different conclusion.

It seems from my readings that the administration was hoping for elections in which a significant portion of the citizenry participated in. They achieved that goal, beyond their expectations. I don't think anyone would argue that it would have been better if more Sunnis had participated, but even there are signs of hope.

Some Sunnis have decided they want to participate in the making of a constitution, http://washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050205-020313-7332r.htm. There are indications that the Shiite's also want this to happen, to avoid the civil wars that are possible, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/02/06/MNGJ4B6Q001.DTL. While Iran is dominated by the Shiite faction, there are indications that the Iraqi Shiite leadership want their own imprimatur on their government. There seems little kowtowing to Iran here.

Truth to tell I am influence by the Iraqi bloggers, it seems to me that they want their country to have time to gain their footing, get a government going that serves the people, exploit their resources, and have a period of stability. They want the coalition to leave, once their objectives are met, meaning Iraq can care for itself, including its borders.

Iran on the other hand, seems determined to have confrontations with the West and Israel. They may or may not have had a hand in the assassination of the former PM of Lebanon, but this is a road that Iraq does not currently want to travel down. That is not saying that Iraq may not be a problem in the long run, but only time will tell. For now I wish them Godspeed.

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